"Climate Change" / Global Warming or Global Cooling?
By Paul Carfoot October 2013.
Blog Updated October 2019.
All Graphs, pictures have links to the web-sites of origin. Please report and dead links, here
Climate.
And update to my first article from 2016.
By Paul Carfoot December 2022.
Why was the term/ phrase “Global Warming” quietly altered to “Climate Change” ?
Answer: Extreme record cold from a “Rapidly Melting Overheated Arctic'”has recently been flooding much further south than expected. Like saying a hot bath caused you to freeze to death!!
Obviously “Global Warming” no longer fits the narrative so it was change to “Climate Change' this phrase fits all possibility's.
When people use the words “Climate Change” do they realise the phrase is a tautology? Climate means change, that's what climate does, change, always has and always will. You are saying the same word twice when you use the phrase “climate change”
The climate today is doing nothing unusual, certainly not outside the realms of natural variability.
Just looking at the geological timescale tells us the climate has been far warmer in the past and also much colder. It has also changed very much more rapidly than today. The Younger Dryas is a typical example.
If the climate behaved as it did during the younger Dryas mankind would have been almost completely wiped off the face of the planet in a couple of decades. The climate went from very warm (warmer than today) to ice-age conditions within as little as 20 years. Cold periods kill, not warm, warmth means good comfortable prosperous conditions, like the medieval warm period when food was plentiful and populations increased. Cold causes famine, disease and death.
Thats why today many northern European people during dark, cold and damp winters seek out warmer sunny climates further south.
We often hear it said “the Science is Settled” this should quickly sound alarm bells and suspicion!
1 There is no such thing as consensus science. (“settled science” If it's consensus, it isn't science. If it's science, it isn't consensus. Period.” Michael Crichton
2 All good scientists are sceptical. Science is never settled, it is always open for debate never ever closed or “Settled”
What about CO2?
Is Co2 at record levels, answer! a huge no! Again take a look at the geological timescale. Co2 has been far, far Higher in the past.
Fact 1 There was an ice age during the Ordovician Era when CO2 levels were 10X higher than today.
Fact 2: Today we live on a carbon dioxide starved planet when judged against geological history.
Fact 3 The Jurassic period saw co2 levels 5 times higher than today, life loved it and thrived.
Fact 4: 500 million years ago, CO2 was close to 4500 ppm, life was abundant in the oceans. There was no runaway greenhouse, nor did the oceans boil away.
We keep seeing ridiculous global maps that look like even the oceans are on fire. The average temperature of planet Earth, 15c or 59f, cool. Only in and around the tropics is it possible for human beings thrive outside without heating, clothing, and shelter.
We fools are the only ones who have feared warmth, past civilisations flourished and prospered during warm times and perished during the dark and ice ages.
Instead of listening to the propaganda and repeating the narrative and very recent climate (last 100 years)do your own research look at a longer piece of string you will be surprised.
Before anyone says I must work for the Fossil fuel industry, no I do not not. I believe in progressive science, that is the way I was educated to ask questions and be inquisitive. Not just parrot what 's heard on the Telly the night before.
Before discussing the question above I will start with myself and why I began questioning anthropogenic global warming (AGW) or sometimes referred to as Catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW)
As long as I remember I have had an interest in weather and climate, on the front page of my website you can read as to how I became fascinated in the subject. You can also learn a little more about me.
Now in my 60's, I have become uncomfortable on how this fascinating subject of weather /climate, which has always been a favourite talking point each day amongst the layman in this country, is now being used to scare people out of their wits, especially children in schools.
What has happened? Well politics have taken over. Making things even worse, celebrities are also jumping on the Climate Change / Global Warming bandwagon, who know absolutely nothing of the science. A perfect example of this recently was this quote 'The human race may be extinct within 15 years because of climate change'.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/10353206/Were-facing-a-mass-extinction-event-claims-Bob-Geldof.html
So, going back a number of years I increasingly became aware of this new phrase, ‘Global Warming’ or ‘Dangerous/ Catastrophic Global Warming’ and that this was being blamed on mans burning of fossil fuels (CO2.) For a couple of years, I did accept what I was reading about and hearing on the news, after all this quite scary information was I thought being put forward from good sources and by climate scientists.
The reports became more prominent, and there was always something in the news concerning AGW. Even natural history programs which I have always loved were adding propaganda reports, e.g. ‘The planet is warming at an alarming rate’ Ice is quickly disappearing at the poles and creatures like polar bears were struggling to survive because all the ice would soon be all gone, all because of mans emissions of CO2.
Many natural and climate history programs have very interesting content, are also very factual. Selling 98% truth / facts mixed with little but powerful propaganda, makes the message even more potent and believable, so gets the lie across. Very crafty technique, though this has been used for years in other areas besides climate.
Being the inquisitive person I am, who has been interested in weather and climate for the most part of my life, reading books on climate and weather since around the age of 10 years, I started to question the scary reports and I was slowly becoming suspicious. Initially when I began to question the AGW theory in any way or showing any scepticism I was sometimes met with quite intimidating responses, things like 'who are you to question the science' and we have all heard this one! There is a consensus' ‘97% of scientists say Global warming is real’ I will talk about the so called 97% later in this blog.
And another 'You know the science is settled' 'There is nothing to debate, the debate is over' Then one of the worst is 'denier' this obviously having connotations to a holocaust denier.
Virtually all sceptics on the AGW theory have meet with similar put down tactics. So why the intimidation, the name calling, the put downs, even threats to some AGW sceptical Scientists?
A phrase I have come across many times during my research, I think an old saying and probably very true.
'As people begin to feel insecure about their ideas and beliefs, the personal attacks and the name calling begins.'
AGW Alarmists promote their ideas as good, saving our planet from runaway manmade global warming when obviously that is not their real agenda. Another saying which is very true. I first heard this here.. ' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdXTohdKcm4
'Villains who twirl the moustaches are easy to spot. Those who clothe themselves in good deeds are well camouflaged.'
This did not deter me at all, if anything it made me more determined to learn more of the science. First I researched Climate and AGW on the internet, and was at once surprised how many other people were questioning the science on AGW, and a surprising number of scientists.
https://www.heartland.org/sites/default/files/crisis_or_delusion_0.pdf
This lead me to reading at least 8 books on climate change by various authors including climate scientists, geologists, ex NASSA workers ETC. After months to over a year of absorbing reading internet reading and many surprises and shocks, but also some things I always suspected of being suspicious, I became a true sceptic on AGW and it was in one of those books which mentioned, don't just sit and do nothing, inform as many people as possible about the real truth on Climate Change. So here I am.
So what is the climate doing Warming or Cooling?
The answer is simple, the climate is always changing whether it be warming or cooling, the climate is rarely static for any great length of time.
The earth has been warming naturally since the end of the little ice age around 1850, many of the glaciers made their most dramatic retreat before 1900, well before humans could have had any significant affect.
We hear almost daily from the news and media that the Earth is warming dangerously because of Man! and we will be doomed if nothing is done quickly.
We are told that 97% of scientists agree that Dangerous Global Warning is happening. It is strange that no evidence can be found supporting this, a figure obviously taken 'Straight out of the air!' Dr. Richard Tol
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/01/tol-statistically-deconstructs-the-97-consensus/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/28/cooks-97-climate-consensus-paper-crumbles-upon-examination/
What the media isn't telling you about Climate Change. (And that '97% consensus')
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=8&v=LOGt3OzTXBs
Quote 'Only 65 Scientists of 12,000 Make up Alleged 97%'
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/5/prweb10772757.htm
http://notrickszone.com/2014/09/23/spiegel-writes-cooks-97-consensus-claims-are-deceiving-the-public-a-failed-call-to-action/
Cooks '97% consensus' disproven by a new peer reviewed paper showing major math errors
Also when scientists are asked ‘is the climate changing,’ almost 100% agree, because of course the climate changes all the time, it always has and always will, but this is deliberately misconstrued by climate alarmists, and they say, ‘they you are ,all scientists agree the climate is changing and it’s all your fault.’
Fact: Science can never be settled “There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. Period.” (Michael Crichton). http://creation.com/crichton-on-scientific-consensus All good scientists have been sceptics.
It cannot have escaped anyone's notice, including a whole generation of young adults that man made greenhouse gases, the main one being CO2 is being blamed for causing dangerous global warming. By dangerous this means warming causing Catastrophic sea level rise which will threaten coastal cities, more extreme damaging hurricanes and tornadoes, more flooding, dangerous heat waves, or the 'poor' polar bears will die out because the Arctic is melting away and so on, we have heard it all. A term has even been applied, Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) or Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW).
In 1988 the united nations set up a body of politicians and scientists, calling them selves the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Their job was set up to collect data and use science (Or should that say miss-use?) to prove that AGW is happening and is real. Ever since we have been inundated with scare stories of the dangerous global warming that is taking place, any major weather event has been focused on, then blamed on man made global warming. Hurricanes, tornadoes, tropical storms, flooding, heat waves, etc. As soon as any major storm occurs anywhere on the planet the so called ambulance chasers are there to blame it on CAGW.
The fact is, throughout history, major weather storms have affected our planet, long before man could possibly have had any helping hand. If man insist on building big cities in those areas which are prone to hurricanes, then one day there will be a hit, period. Obviously before large towns and cities were built in coastal areas, the major hurricanes would have possibly gone unrecorded and unnoticed.
We hear almost everyday from the media and in the news that tornadoes, hurricanes etc are suddenly on the increase, are they?
And update to my first article from 2016.
By Paul Carfoot December 2022.
Why was the term/ phrase “Global Warming” quietly altered to “Climate Change” ?
Answer: Extreme record cold from a “Rapidly Melting Overheated Arctic'”has recently been flooding much further south than expected. Like saying a hot bath caused you to freeze to death!!
Obviously “Global Warming” no longer fits the narrative so it was change to “Climate Change' this phrase fits all possibility's.
When people use the words “Climate Change” do they realise the phrase is a tautology? Climate means change, that's what climate does, change, always has and always will. You are saying the same word twice when you use the phrase “climate change”
The climate today is doing nothing unusual, certainly not outside the realms of natural variability.
Just looking at the geological timescale tells us the climate has been far warmer in the past and also much colder. It has also changed very much more rapidly than today. The Younger Dryas is a typical example.
If the climate behaved as it did during the younger Dryas mankind would have been almost completely wiped off the face of the planet in a couple of decades. The climate went from very warm (warmer than today) to ice-age conditions within as little as 20 years. Cold periods kill, not warm, warmth means good comfortable prosperous conditions, like the medieval warm period when food was plentiful and populations increased. Cold causes famine, disease and death.
Thats why today many northern European people during dark, cold and damp winters seek out warmer sunny climates further south.
We often hear it said “the Science is Settled” this should quickly sound alarm bells and suspicion!
1 There is no such thing as consensus science. (“settled science” If it's consensus, it isn't science. If it's science, it isn't consensus. Period.” Michael Crichton
2 All good scientists are sceptical. Science is never settled, it is always open for debate never ever closed or “Settled”
What about CO2?
Is Co2 at record levels, answer! a huge no! Again take a look at the geological timescale. Co2 has been far, far Higher in the past.
Fact 1 There was an ice age during the Ordovician Era when CO2 levels were 10X higher than today.
Fact 2: Today we live on a carbon dioxide starved planet when judged against geological history.
Fact 3 The Jurassic period saw co2 levels 5 times higher than today, life loved it and thrived.
Fact 4: 500 million years ago, CO2 was close to 4500 ppm, life was abundant in the oceans. There was no runaway greenhouse, nor did the oceans boil away.
We keep seeing ridiculous global maps that look like even the oceans are on fire. The average temperature of planet Earth, 15c or 59f, cool. Only in and around the tropics is it possible for human beings thrive outside without heating, clothing, and shelter.
We fools are the only ones who have feared warmth, past civilisations flourished and prospered during warm times and perished during the dark and ice ages.
Instead of listening to the propaganda and repeating the narrative and very recent climate (last 100 years)do your own research look at a longer piece of string you will be surprised.
Before anyone says I must work for the Fossil fuel industry, no I do not not. I believe in progressive science, that is the way I was educated to ask questions and be inquisitive. Not just parrot what 's heard on the Telly the night before.
Before discussing the question above I will start with myself and why I began questioning anthropogenic global warming (AGW) or sometimes referred to as Catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW)
As long as I remember I have had an interest in weather and climate, on the front page of my website you can read as to how I became fascinated in the subject. You can also learn a little more about me.
Now in my 60's, I have become uncomfortable on how this fascinating subject of weather /climate, which has always been a favourite talking point each day amongst the layman in this country, is now being used to scare people out of their wits, especially children in schools.
What has happened? Well politics have taken over. Making things even worse, celebrities are also jumping on the Climate Change / Global Warming bandwagon, who know absolutely nothing of the science. A perfect example of this recently was this quote 'The human race may be extinct within 15 years because of climate change'.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/10353206/Were-facing-a-mass-extinction-event-claims-Bob-Geldof.html
So, going back a number of years I increasingly became aware of this new phrase, ‘Global Warming’ or ‘Dangerous/ Catastrophic Global Warming’ and that this was being blamed on mans burning of fossil fuels (CO2.) For a couple of years, I did accept what I was reading about and hearing on the news, after all this quite scary information was I thought being put forward from good sources and by climate scientists.
The reports became more prominent, and there was always something in the news concerning AGW. Even natural history programs which I have always loved were adding propaganda reports, e.g. ‘The planet is warming at an alarming rate’ Ice is quickly disappearing at the poles and creatures like polar bears were struggling to survive because all the ice would soon be all gone, all because of mans emissions of CO2.
Many natural and climate history programs have very interesting content, are also very factual. Selling 98% truth / facts mixed with little but powerful propaganda, makes the message even more potent and believable, so gets the lie across. Very crafty technique, though this has been used for years in other areas besides climate.
Being the inquisitive person I am, who has been interested in weather and climate for the most part of my life, reading books on climate and weather since around the age of 10 years, I started to question the scary reports and I was slowly becoming suspicious. Initially when I began to question the AGW theory in any way or showing any scepticism I was sometimes met with quite intimidating responses, things like 'who are you to question the science' and we have all heard this one! There is a consensus' ‘97% of scientists say Global warming is real’ I will talk about the so called 97% later in this blog.
And another 'You know the science is settled' 'There is nothing to debate, the debate is over' Then one of the worst is 'denier' this obviously having connotations to a holocaust denier.
Virtually all sceptics on the AGW theory have meet with similar put down tactics. So why the intimidation, the name calling, the put downs, even threats to some AGW sceptical Scientists?
A phrase I have come across many times during my research, I think an old saying and probably very true.
'As people begin to feel insecure about their ideas and beliefs, the personal attacks and the name calling begins.'
AGW Alarmists promote their ideas as good, saving our planet from runaway manmade global warming when obviously that is not their real agenda. Another saying which is very true. I first heard this here.. ' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdXTohdKcm4
'Villains who twirl the moustaches are easy to spot. Those who clothe themselves in good deeds are well camouflaged.'
This did not deter me at all, if anything it made me more determined to learn more of the science. First I researched Climate and AGW on the internet, and was at once surprised how many other people were questioning the science on AGW, and a surprising number of scientists.
https://www.heartland.org/sites/default/files/crisis_or_delusion_0.pdf
This lead me to reading at least 8 books on climate change by various authors including climate scientists, geologists, ex NASSA workers ETC. After months to over a year of absorbing reading internet reading and many surprises and shocks, but also some things I always suspected of being suspicious, I became a true sceptic on AGW and it was in one of those books which mentioned, don't just sit and do nothing, inform as many people as possible about the real truth on Climate Change. So here I am.
So what is the climate doing Warming or Cooling?
The answer is simple, the climate is always changing whether it be warming or cooling, the climate is rarely static for any great length of time.
The earth has been warming naturally since the end of the little ice age around 1850, many of the glaciers made their most dramatic retreat before 1900, well before humans could have had any significant affect.
We hear almost daily from the news and media that the Earth is warming dangerously because of Man! and we will be doomed if nothing is done quickly.
We are told that 97% of scientists agree that Dangerous Global Warning is happening. It is strange that no evidence can be found supporting this, a figure obviously taken 'Straight out of the air!' Dr. Richard Tol
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/01/tol-statistically-deconstructs-the-97-consensus/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/28/cooks-97-climate-consensus-paper-crumbles-upon-examination/
What the media isn't telling you about Climate Change. (And that '97% consensus')
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=8&v=LOGt3OzTXBs
Quote 'Only 65 Scientists of 12,000 Make up Alleged 97%'
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/5/prweb10772757.htm
http://notrickszone.com/2014/09/23/spiegel-writes-cooks-97-consensus-claims-are-deceiving-the-public-a-failed-call-to-action/
Cooks '97% consensus' disproven by a new peer reviewed paper showing major math errors
Also when scientists are asked ‘is the climate changing,’ almost 100% agree, because of course the climate changes all the time, it always has and always will, but this is deliberately misconstrued by climate alarmists, and they say, ‘they you are ,all scientists agree the climate is changing and it’s all your fault.’
Fact: Science can never be settled “There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. Period.” (Michael Crichton). http://creation.com/crichton-on-scientific-consensus All good scientists have been sceptics.
It cannot have escaped anyone's notice, including a whole generation of young adults that man made greenhouse gases, the main one being CO2 is being blamed for causing dangerous global warming. By dangerous this means warming causing Catastrophic sea level rise which will threaten coastal cities, more extreme damaging hurricanes and tornadoes, more flooding, dangerous heat waves, or the 'poor' polar bears will die out because the Arctic is melting away and so on, we have heard it all. A term has even been applied, Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) or Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW).
In 1988 the united nations set up a body of politicians and scientists, calling them selves the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Their job was set up to collect data and use science (Or should that say miss-use?) to prove that AGW is happening and is real. Ever since we have been inundated with scare stories of the dangerous global warming that is taking place, any major weather event has been focused on, then blamed on man made global warming. Hurricanes, tornadoes, tropical storms, flooding, heat waves, etc. As soon as any major storm occurs anywhere on the planet the so called ambulance chasers are there to blame it on CAGW.
The fact is, throughout history, major weather storms have affected our planet, long before man could possibly have had any helping hand. If man insist on building big cities in those areas which are prone to hurricanes, then one day there will be a hit, period. Obviously before large towns and cities were built in coastal areas, the major hurricanes would have possibly gone unrecorded and unnoticed.
We hear almost everyday from the media and in the news that tornadoes, hurricanes etc are suddenly on the increase, are they?
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/09/do-tropical-storms-correlate-with-co2-in-a-word-no/
As you can see above, tornadoes increased from 1954 to 1974, ever since there has, if anything been a decline in numbers with 2012 being one of the quietest years ever recorded, just when the media has been shouting and scaring us into believing the opposite. There are so many other examples, far to many too be included in this current document.
Are temperatures rising now to historic high levels? Well we are being told so aren't we? It is warmer today than it has ever been! The Arctic is melting away and the polar bears will disappear, well they survived very well during all other previous warm periods in history, yes, when it was warmer than today. Recently reports have stated the number of Polar bears has decreased, this is a total untruth, in fact polar bear numbers have increased from around 10,000 in 1966 to 25,000 or more in 2006.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/9934109/Sir-David-Attenborough-should-check-his-facts-on-polar-bears.html
What of the Climate Models? Even today we still being told that the Earth is warming rapidly and dangerously because of mans CO2 emissions.
Below is a graph produced by the climate models which we hear so much about and how all the alarmists warming predictions are made. As you can plainly see, the models have failed utterly and completely, again nature does not listen to propaganda, the graph below is not one you will see when the warmest/alarmists and the media push their warming earth claims.
The fact is there has been no further warming now for almost 20 years. Something you will never hear on the news.
As you can see above, tornadoes increased from 1954 to 1974, ever since there has, if anything been a decline in numbers with 2012 being one of the quietest years ever recorded, just when the media has been shouting and scaring us into believing the opposite. There are so many other examples, far to many too be included in this current document.
Are temperatures rising now to historic high levels? Well we are being told so aren't we? It is warmer today than it has ever been! The Arctic is melting away and the polar bears will disappear, well they survived very well during all other previous warm periods in history, yes, when it was warmer than today. Recently reports have stated the number of Polar bears has decreased, this is a total untruth, in fact polar bear numbers have increased from around 10,000 in 1966 to 25,000 or more in 2006.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/9934109/Sir-David-Attenborough-should-check-his-facts-on-polar-bears.html
What of the Climate Models? Even today we still being told that the Earth is warming rapidly and dangerously because of mans CO2 emissions.
Below is a graph produced by the climate models which we hear so much about and how all the alarmists warming predictions are made. As you can plainly see, the models have failed utterly and completely, again nature does not listen to propaganda, the graph below is not one you will see when the warmest/alarmists and the media push their warming earth claims.
The fact is there has been no further warming now for almost 20 years. Something you will never hear on the news.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/06/still-epic-fail-73-climate-models-vs-measurements-running-5-year-means/
Climate is always changing, whether it be warming or cooling it has always has and it always will.
Lets look at a graph of Greenland core temperatures going back to 3000 BC
The graph below is a screenshot from an excellent presentation on climate change by Professor Bob Carter, click to watch video.
Climate is always changing, whether it be warming or cooling it has always has and it always will.
Lets look at a graph of Greenland core temperatures going back to 3000 BC
The graph below is a screenshot from an excellent presentation on climate change by Professor Bob Carter, click to watch video.
Screenshot of video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-joRMichVY&feature=youtu.be%20%E2%80%A6
Although the graph shows temperatures from Greenland, it represents very well the relative climate of the past.
Below more graphs which tells the story very well that the climate is always changing and that Climate Change today is nothing new, as we are being told. As you can see the climate has changed very dramatically in the past, sometimes massive changes have occurred within 20 years, e.g. the 'Younger Dryas' though usually the process is more gradual over hundreds or thousands of years.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-joRMichVY&feature=youtu.be%20%E2%80%A6
Although the graph shows temperatures from Greenland, it represents very well the relative climate of the past.
Below more graphs which tells the story very well that the climate is always changing and that Climate Change today is nothing new, as we are being told. As you can see the climate has changed very dramatically in the past, sometimes massive changes have occurred within 20 years, e.g. the 'Younger Dryas' though usually the process is more gradual over hundreds or thousands of years.
http://www.longrangeweather.com/global_temperatures.htm
GISP" ice core: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/02/23/crowdsourcing-the-wuwt-paleoclimate-reference-page/
Global temperatures (2500 BC. To 2040 AD.) http://www.saccani.net/blog/2009/12/il-global-warming-esiste-si-ma/
http://naturalclimatechange.us/disproofs-of-agw-hypothesis/
GISP" ice core: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/02/23/crowdsourcing-the-wuwt-paleoclimate-reference-page/
Global temperatures (2500 BC. To 2040 AD.) http://www.saccani.net/blog/2009/12/il-global-warming-esiste-si-ma/
http://naturalclimatechange.us/disproofs-of-agw-hypothesis/
As you can clearly see it has been much colder in the past and much warmer too. The Minoan was a lovely warm period, so was the Roman warming, then we got the cold dark ages, much suffering back then, this was followed by the Medieval warm period, at time of great prosperity, a wonderful time to be alive, this was followed by the little Ice Age, a very cold period when the River Thames would regularly freeze over in winter. These were hard times. After the little ice age it began to warm again, in what we now call the modern warm period. Looking at the graph above it is clear that each warm period has peaked slightly lower than the previous, including today's modern warming, so why are we being told that it is warmer today than ever before in history? I will leave that question unanswered and for you to decide.
Above: White Spruce radiocarbon dated at 5000 years old located 100 km north of the current tree line.
Another difficult one for Climate Alarmists to explain away, have mentioned this to dozens of them, no one has an answer, apart from an attempt at a put down.
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/arctic-temperatures-highest-on-44000.htmltheclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/arctic-temperatures-highest-on-44000.html
http://www.uni-mainz.de/eng/15491.php
The graph above is one you will never see from an alarmist, it showers clearly that over the greater time scale, the trend is towards a cooling not warming. An alarmist would only show a graph covering approximately the last hundred years when there clearly has obviously been a natural warming, that being the recovery from the little ice age.
We are the first to fear warming for some odd reason. Warm periods are always associated with prosperity, good times, cold periods are always times of hardship. We should have enjoyed the warmth while it lasted, because it seems now that the cooling has begun once more, see my reports on 'Solar activity and its effects on climate' further down this paper.
Update: January 2015: Now the IPCC are very reluctantly admitting that there has been no warming for the past 18 years. This seems to have baffled the scientists and researches on their panel who are desperately seeking an explanation for the hiatus, some are saying that this is only a short pause and that Global warming will soon re-commence and that the heat is hiding in the oceans and will be released again very soon!
In fact there have been more than 65 desperate excuses to try and explain the pause up to March 2015 http://www.climatedepot.com/2014/11/20/its-official-there-are-now-66-excuses-for-temp-pause-updated-list-of-66-excuses-for-the-18-26-year-pause-in-global-warming/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/climate-fail-files/list-of-excuses-for-the-pause-in-global-warming/
Below is a graph of 2-meter Global temperature anomaly. The PDO flipped from its warm to cool phase at the beginning of the 21st century, notice the downward temperature change.
http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=15543&topicid=69500&Itemid=179
This presents another reason as to why global temperatures have not risen for 16+ years. When the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) flips from warm to cool, so global temperature begin level out and even fall. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is currently in its warm phase, this is due to drop in to its cool phase within the next few years, when that happen, global temperatures will slip even further and combined with a continued quiet sun, this in my opinion is likely to result in a further fall.
The simple answer is usually the correct one, there is no mystery as to where the heat has gone, where? In to outer space, the usual route and with the sun continuing to be quiet, this combined with cooling ocean temperatures, the temperature simply falls. but for them to admit to that would be to admit they have got all of their 'settled science' completely and utterly wrong.
It really does seem to me that their reasoning and answers are becoming desperate.
CO2 the greenhouse gas, the culprit the pollutant and the enemy!
CO2/ carbon dioxide is plant food, without it life on earth could not exist. Some times referred to recently as just carbon and a pollutant. It is a totally natural gas and certainly not a pollutant. It is a trace gas in the atmosphere, it does help keep our planet warmer than it would be without it, as do other trace greenhouse gases. It's generally thought that these trace gases keeps the Earths average temperature from a chilly -19c to warm +15c. Increased levels of CO2 have a further warming effect, and the relatively small volumes man produces may have a tiny effect on temperature, but the effects of CO2 only have a warming effect to a certain point. Many scientists now think CO2 has probably reached or neared its maximum effect on temperature.
The math and science behind the warming effect of CO2 works on a logarithmic scale, as CO2 increases the effects on temperature rise decrease.
The link below explains this in great detail. By Tony Heller.
Basic Science For Climate Scientists
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-zaQWAaPAg
For another in-depth report go here.. The Logarithmic Effect of Carbon Dioxide.
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/the-logarithmic-effect-of-carbon-dioxide_19.html
Put simply CO2 works like a curtain over a window, drawing the curtain makes it darker, adding a second curtain turns it completely dark, obviously adding a 3rd would have no further effect.
Throughout history CO2 levels have increased and decreased. Man adds CO2 to the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels, this is what all the fuss is about, all this CO2 we add is causing dangerous temperature rise? Wrong. Temperatures have risen in modern times, but not out of the bounds of natural variability. Of course it has been getting warmer, we are still recovering from the last little Ice Age. Also CO2 levels increase following temperature rise, not CO2 forcing higher temperatures. Global air temperatures rise follow ocean temperature rise, which happens in cycles.
Look at it like this, what happens when a bottle of fizzy pop is warmed? yes it goes flat as it losses its gas, which of course is CO2. So what happens when the oceans warm due to natural rising temperatures? yes they release gas, CO2 into the atmosphere causing a rise. When the oceans cool they are able to hold onto more CO2, simple. Cooler oceans mean a cooler planet.
The chart below shows CO2 levels through the ages. CO2 is the purple line, blue is temperature, no correlation at all. Atmospheric Temperatures rise follows ocean temperature rise. Also CO2 levels have been very much higher in the past, what is all the fuss about now with rising greenhouse gases and the highest is has ever been?
This presents another reason as to why global temperatures have not risen for 16+ years. When the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) flips from warm to cool, so global temperature begin level out and even fall. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is currently in its warm phase, this is due to drop in to its cool phase within the next few years, when that happen, global temperatures will slip even further and combined with a continued quiet sun, this in my opinion is likely to result in a further fall.
The simple answer is usually the correct one, there is no mystery as to where the heat has gone, where? In to outer space, the usual route and with the sun continuing to be quiet, this combined with cooling ocean temperatures, the temperature simply falls. but for them to admit to that would be to admit they have got all of their 'settled science' completely and utterly wrong.
It really does seem to me that their reasoning and answers are becoming desperate.
CO2 the greenhouse gas, the culprit the pollutant and the enemy!
CO2/ carbon dioxide is plant food, without it life on earth could not exist. Some times referred to recently as just carbon and a pollutant. It is a totally natural gas and certainly not a pollutant. It is a trace gas in the atmosphere, it does help keep our planet warmer than it would be without it, as do other trace greenhouse gases. It's generally thought that these trace gases keeps the Earths average temperature from a chilly -19c to warm +15c. Increased levels of CO2 have a further warming effect, and the relatively small volumes man produces may have a tiny effect on temperature, but the effects of CO2 only have a warming effect to a certain point. Many scientists now think CO2 has probably reached or neared its maximum effect on temperature.
The math and science behind the warming effect of CO2 works on a logarithmic scale, as CO2 increases the effects on temperature rise decrease.
The link below explains this in great detail. By Tony Heller.
Basic Science For Climate Scientists
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-zaQWAaPAg
For another in-depth report go here.. The Logarithmic Effect of Carbon Dioxide.
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/the-logarithmic-effect-of-carbon-dioxide_19.html
Put simply CO2 works like a curtain over a window, drawing the curtain makes it darker, adding a second curtain turns it completely dark, obviously adding a 3rd would have no further effect.
Throughout history CO2 levels have increased and decreased. Man adds CO2 to the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels, this is what all the fuss is about, all this CO2 we add is causing dangerous temperature rise? Wrong. Temperatures have risen in modern times, but not out of the bounds of natural variability. Of course it has been getting warmer, we are still recovering from the last little Ice Age. Also CO2 levels increase following temperature rise, not CO2 forcing higher temperatures. Global air temperatures rise follow ocean temperature rise, which happens in cycles.
Look at it like this, what happens when a bottle of fizzy pop is warmed? yes it goes flat as it losses its gas, which of course is CO2. So what happens when the oceans warm due to natural rising temperatures? yes they release gas, CO2 into the atmosphere causing a rise. When the oceans cool they are able to hold onto more CO2, simple. Cooler oceans mean a cooler planet.
The chart below shows CO2 levels through the ages. CO2 is the purple line, blue is temperature, no correlation at all. Atmospheric Temperatures rise follows ocean temperature rise. Also CO2 levels have been very much higher in the past, what is all the fuss about now with rising greenhouse gases and the highest is has ever been?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/04/dr-vincent-gray-on-historical-carbon-dioxide-levels/
Lets get CO2 in to perspective, the pie graph below says it all.
Lets get CO2 in to perspective, the pie graph below says it all.
http://blog.deadlycomputer.com/2009/04/22/2180/
Looking at the above, how on Earth can man made CO2 be causing the majority of the warming, when most of the CO2 in the atmosphere is mostly natural?
Over the last 15 years CO2 levels have increased slightly, this may be partly due to man burning fossil fuels, or may be entirely natural, ether way Global temperatures have remained static or even fallen slightly. Temperature have not increased as the climate models predicted and which were so positively backed by the IPCC. Below again the graph of the models predicted temperature rise versus reality, not one model got it right and the IPCC say the science is settled!
Looking at the above, how on Earth can man made CO2 be causing the majority of the warming, when most of the CO2 in the atmosphere is mostly natural?
Over the last 15 years CO2 levels have increased slightly, this may be partly due to man burning fossil fuels, or may be entirely natural, ether way Global temperatures have remained static or even fallen slightly. Temperature have not increased as the climate models predicted and which were so positively backed by the IPCC. Below again the graph of the models predicted temperature rise versus reality, not one model got it right and the IPCC say the science is settled!
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/06/still-epic-fail-73-climate-models-vs-measurements-running-5-year-means/
Ok if CO2 doesn't drive climate what does?
Solar activity and its effects on climate:
As has already been said, the things forcing climate are the ocean cycles, such as El Niño and La Niña, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), but the sun is the ultimate driver. The sun goes through cycles of high activity and low activity, this is normally a ten year cycle, towards the end of its cycle there are more sunspots and the lower end there are less. The sun went through an unusually active period through the 80's and 90's and the globe warmed.
The sun has been quiet for some considerable period of time, the process started around 4 years ago with, an at times spotless sun, just when the cycle should have been heading towards a maximum, this coincided with the jet streams driving further south over Europe. Recent research suggests a quiet sun influences the course of the jet streams. There have been a few burst of sunspot activity recently, but these are well below the normal. 2014, The sun should be nearing its 11 year maximum cycle now, but this is not occurring. It could be we are just entering a phase similar to the Maunder Minimum which took place around 1645 to 1715, this was period when there were many intensely cold winters and cool wet summers over the northern hemisphere.
Ok if CO2 doesn't drive climate what does?
Solar activity and its effects on climate:
As has already been said, the things forcing climate are the ocean cycles, such as El Niño and La Niña, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), but the sun is the ultimate driver. The sun goes through cycles of high activity and low activity, this is normally a ten year cycle, towards the end of its cycle there are more sunspots and the lower end there are less. The sun went through an unusually active period through the 80's and 90's and the globe warmed.
The sun has been quiet for some considerable period of time, the process started around 4 years ago with, an at times spotless sun, just when the cycle should have been heading towards a maximum, this coincided with the jet streams driving further south over Europe. Recent research suggests a quiet sun influences the course of the jet streams. There have been a few burst of sunspot activity recently, but these are well below the normal. 2014, The sun should be nearing its 11 year maximum cycle now, but this is not occurring. It could be we are just entering a phase similar to the Maunder Minimum which took place around 1645 to 1715, this was period when there were many intensely cold winters and cool wet summers over the northern hemisphere.
http://iceagenow.info/2013/10/historical-total-solar-irradiance/
We were told polar bear numbers had plummeted, untrue, see link further up this report.
That Antarctica sea ice would dramatically shrink, another fail, it has actually increased to near record levels in 2013 and 2014. Update, Feb 2015. Antarctic sea ice continues to break high level records.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/09/23/antarctic-sea-ice-hit-35-year-record-high-saturday/
Back in 2000 we were told. UK 'Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past'.
The internet link below no longer works, (13/11/15) it pointed to one of the biggest climate blunders on the internet. I wonder why?
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
Fortunately the interment site http://wattsupwiththat.com/ preserved it and you can fine it here..
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/12/one-of-the-longest-running-climate-prediction-blunders-has-disappeared-from-the-internet/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/02/22/snowjobs-are-just-a-thing-of-the-past-er-present/
Fact: Since then the UK has seen some bitterly cold winters. Winter 2009 was cold and snowy, November and December 2010 was the coldest for over a century with repeated heavy snowfalls, and the winter as a whole was the coldest since 1962-63. March 2013 saw the widespread blizzards and record low temperatures. See Archives on this site for more information.
North America have been experiencing brutal winters recently, 2013-14 and again 2014-15. Lake Superior froze to >92% and still had ice in June 2014, unheard of before.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2654119/But-summer-Icebergs-spotted-floating-Lake-Superior-despite-Great-Lakes-declared-ice-free.html
Winter 2015 has seen even more Ice on lake Superior, up to 100% cover because of the brutal winter.
Most people accept as true what they hear and read in the media. For the average person who may only have small amounts of knowledge of our climate and meteorology, just to say absolutely none of the claims put out by the global warming / climate change alarmists have come anywhere near true. From what I have learned, they won't come true because the science says the complete reverse is happening right now. The world is going through a cooling phase, how long this will be, no one is really sure, but based on climate history, when the sun enters a period of low activity like the current one, it could last 30 years or more.
Other scare claims by the AGW alarmists in 2007 stated that all the summer sea ice in the Arctic would be gone by 2013.
Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm
Below is the reality of the situation..
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=10&fd=19&fy=2007&sm=10&sd=19&sy=2013
Update November 2017:
Some new ground breaking science. 'Study blows 'greenhouse theory out of the water' https://twitter.com/NikolovScience/status/904087334202646528
An argument many climate alarmists use to try and prove that CO2 drives climate is by demonstrating why the planet Venus is very hot, it has 95% CO2, this is the reason it has a runaway greenhouse.
Ok lets answer that theory!
1 Venus is very hot and has a 95% CO2 atmosphere. It has also has very high atmospheric pressure.
2 Earth is obviously just right for life, with <1% CO2. Atmospheric pressure is much lower than Venus.
3 Mars is very cold and frozen with 95% CO2. Mars atmosphere is very thin, much thinner than that of Earth.
Ever wondered why Mountain tops on Earth are always very cold, like the top of mount Everest, and the valleys below are very much warmer.
It is all to do with pressure, which is much lower on top of Mount Everest, so heat cannot be held in the very thin atmosphere.
In the valley below the pressure is much higher, the atmosphere is thicker so can hold more heat.
So the reason Venus is so hot is because of its enormous atmospheric pressure, not CO2, the atmosphere can hold considerably more heat. Where as Mars’s atmosphere can hold little heat because it is so thin. So the CO2 theory for heat retention is completely wrong. It is all to do with Atmospheric pressure.
Before people send in comments,… But Paul, Mars is further away from the sun than Venus and Earth, well yes that is true. But Jupiter is also much further away from the sun than all the 3 planets we just mentioned and its atmosphere is very thick and also very hot.
Just to add, also the Venus days last around 7 months, imagine 7 months of scorching sun, another reason it has become so hot.
https://realclimatescience.com/2018/01/nasa-debunks-global-warming-theory/
Because climate history continues to be a huge inconvenience to Climate Alarmists and blows all their alarmists reports out of the window, they try to erase a warmer past! "We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1rj00BoItw
Paul Carfoot.
Burton weather.
Update November 2017:
Some new ground breaking science. 'Study blows 'greenhouse theory out of the water' https://twitter.com/NikolovScience/status/904087334202646528
An argument many climate alarmists use to try and prove that CO2 drives climate is by demonstrating why the planet Venus is very hot, it has 95% CO2, this is the reason it has a runaway greenhouse.
Ok lets answer that theory!
1 Venus is very hot and has a 95% CO2 atmosphere. It has also has very high atmospheric pressure.
2 Earth is obviously just right for life, with <1% CO2. Atmospheric pressure is much lower than Venus.
3 Mars is very cold and frozen with 95% CO2. Mars atmosphere is very thin, much thinner than that of Earth.
Ever wondered why Mountain tops on Earth are always very cold, like the top of mount Everest, and the valleys below are very much warmer.
It is all to do with pressure, which is much lower on top of Mount Everest, so heat cannot be held in the very thin atmosphere.
In the valley below the pressure is much higher, the atmosphere is thicker so can hold more heat.
So the reason Venus is so hot is because of its enormous atmospheric pressure, not CO2, the atmosphere can hold considerably more heat. Where as Mars’s atmosphere can hold little heat because it is so thin. So the CO2 theory for heat retention is completely wrong. It is all to do with Atmospheric pressure.
Before people send in comments,… But Paul, Mars is further away from the sun than Venus and Earth, well yes that is true. But Jupiter is also much further away from the sun than all the 3 planets we just mentioned and its atmosphere is very thick and also very hot.
Just to add, also the Venus days last around 7 months, imagine 7 months of scorching sun, another reason it has become so hot.
https://realclimatescience.com/2018/01/nasa-debunks-global-warming-theory/
Because climate history continues to be a huge inconvenience to Climate Alarmists and blows all their alarmists reports out of the window, they try to erase a warmer past! "We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1rj00BoItw
Paul Carfoot.
Burton weather.
http://www.burtonweather.com on Adobe Contribute -->